ETC: European tourism grows despite rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty

European tourism continued to perform strongly in the second quarter of 2026, despite rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, according to the latest quarterly report by the European Travel Commission (ETC) titled European Tourism: Trends & Prospects.

• International tourist arrivals to Europe grew by 5.0% year-to-date, with nights spent increasing by 4.8%.

• Nearly 80% of reporting destinations recorded growth in the second quarter, despite disruptions in aviation.

• Travelers are prioritizing value, safety, and nearby destinations, showing increased interest in shoulder-season travel.

International tourist arrivals to Europe grew by 5.0% year-to-date compared to the same period in 2025, while nights spent increased by 4.8%. These stable results come despite weaker consumer confidence, growing affordability pressures, and disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which impacted aircraft flows between Europe and certain long-haul and medium-haul markets.

Survey results showed that travel remains a priority for consumers, but choices are becoming more selective. Travelers are increasingly seeking destinations that are perceived as safer, offer good value for money, and are more easily accessible, while travel continues to be distributed more evenly throughout the year.

Destination performance remained largely stable. Nearly 80% of destinations recorded growth, with approximately one in five achieving a double-digit increase in arrivals. The largest surge in arrivals during the first months of 2026 was recorded by Greece (+38%), Italy (+21%), and Malta (+16%), supported by strong connectivity and efforts to spread demand beyond the peak season and traditional hotspots.

Northern Europe outperformed all other European subregions, with a 10.0% increase in arrivals and an 8.4% rise in nights spent. Central and Eastern Europe also recorded growth, with arrivals up by 5.2% and nights spent up by 6.9%, reflecting continued interest in destinations that offer new experiences and better value for money. Southern and Mediterranean Europe remained solid overall, recording the largest growth in absolute terms, with increases in Malta, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain.

Although the overall outlook remains positive, several destinations faced a more challenging start to the year. Cyprus recorded a 17.9% drop in arrivals, partly due to the impact of Easter timing and weaker traveler sentiment linked to perceived proximity to the conflict in the Middle East. Turkey also saw a 2.1% decline in arrivals, reflecting softer demand from both European and long-haul visitors amid the regional conflict.

Regarding air passenger transport, activity in Europe was strong in the first quarter of 2026, with Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rising by 7.0%, with March recording the strongest growth at 8.0%. However, performance slowed to 1.0% in April, as the Middle East conflict disrupted flights between Europe and several long-haul markets.

Travel expenditure outpaced arrivals in most destinations, suggesting higher spending per visitor than the previous year. Greece stands out with travel spending increasing by 64.3% and arrivals by 38.3%, indicating significantly higher spending per trip.

Success varies depending on the destination. In Italy, arrivals grew by 21.1%, while travel spending increased by 4.3%, reflecting weaker average spending per visitor despite volume growth. Turkey and Cyprus were among the few destinations where both arrivals and travel expenditure fell, likely reflecting softer traveler sentiment associated with the Middle East conflict.

Looking ahead to summer 2026, leisure travel is expected to remain a priority despite continued economic uncertainty. Across key European source markets, leisure travel expenditure is projected to remain stable at 13.0% of total spending in 2026, well above the global average of 8.5%.

Furthermore, travelers are becoming more price-sensitive. In the latest Travel Industry Monitor survey, 48% of European respondents identified affordability and value for money as a key opportunity for Europe in the second quarter, up from 32% in the first quarter.

European travelers are also expected to prefer nearby destinations that are easier to reach, more familiar, and offer greater flexibility. Southern and Mediterranean Europe are well-positioned to meet this demand, with interest in the region between June and November rising to 61%. Shoulder months are also gaining importance as travelers react to concerns over extreme weather events and overcrowding, with September bookings growing strongly across Europe.

Sustainability is becoming a more visible part of travel planning. Google Trends data shows growing interest in "sustainable tourism" in 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. However, awareness does not always translate into action, as only 41% of consumers intend to change their travel behavior due to environmental concerns.

Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission: "European tourism continued to display resilience in the second quarter of 2026, despite a more uncertain global environment. Travel remains a priority for consumers, but the way people travel is changing. Affordability, safety, proximity, and value for money are becoming increasingly important when choosing a destination. For European destinations, the priority is to remain competitive while supporting more balanced visitor flows across regions and seasons."

Source and photo: ETC